Index Update: The Nifty 50 gained 120.60 points to close at 25,694.95, holding above key support levels. The index continues to trade comfortably above the 51-day EMA at 25,243.48, highlighting firm underlying support. The RSI at 56.07 indicates mild bullish momentum, keeping the broader outlook slightly positive. Immediate support is positioned near 25,200, while resistance lies around 26,300. A decisive move above 25,670 would further reinforce the ongoing upward bias and strengthen near-term sentiment.

Macro Update:  The BSE Sensex slipped 309 points, or 0.4%, to 83,227, led by declines in banking, financial, and auto stocks. Sentiment was dented by a sharp fall in Bajaj Finance shares, which plunged over 7% after the lender trimmed its asset growth outlook despite posting strong profit growth. Meanwhile, encouraging domestic data—such as a fall in unemployment to 5.2% and rising female labour participation—offered some economic optimism. However, traders remained cautious, awaiting concrete progress on a potential India–US trade deal and the upcoming RBI policy decision, where expectations of softer inflation have bolstered hopes for an interest rate cut.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE: INDIGO) led the gainers with a 3.55% increase, closing at INR 5,787.00 followed by Bharat Electronics Limited (NSE: BEL) up 2.39% at INR 426.80 and Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE: M&M) which rose 2.22% to INR 3,745.10. On the downside Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE: BAJFINANCE) saw the largest drop, falling 7.00% to INR 1,009.10 followed by Bajaj Finserv Limited (NSE: BAJAJFINSV) down 5.92% to INR 1,992.90 and Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE: ONGC), which dropped 0.60% to INR 249.90.

Commodity Update: The yen slid to its weakest level since February as hopes grew for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown, lifting risk currencies. Gold rose 0.55% to USD 4,145, silver gained 0.44% to USD 50.52, while copper was slightly lower at USD 10,818. Brent crude dipped 0.30% to USD 63.89 amid concerns of a potential supply glut, despite support from U.S. political progress and refinery disruptions.

Our Stance: India’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield slipped below 6.5%, marking its lowest level in nearly a month, as investors increasingly anticipate RBI intervention through open market operations (OMOs) to ease liquidity pressures. The central bank’s recent ₹6,357 crore bond purchase via the NDS-OM platform reinforced market confidence that it stands ready to stabilize yields amid tight banking system liquidity caused by its ongoing foreign exchange interventions. Additionally, expectations of adjustments to the government and state borrowing calendars could further reduce near-term supply concerns, supporting a more stable outlook for sovereign debt.

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