Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed at 23,161.60, down 0.23% for the session. The benchmark continues to trade below its 50-day SMA of 23,703.23, indicating that the broader near-term trend remains cautious. Recent price action suggests the index is consolidating after recovering from its recent lows, with upside momentum remaining limited. The 14-day RSI stood at 37.86, remaining below the neutral 50 mark and reflecting subdued momentum conditions. Key downside levels are placed near 22,929.98 and 22,698.37, while upside hurdles are located around 23,393.22 and 23,624.83. A sustained move above the higher zone could improve sentiment, while weakness below the lower levels may keep pressure on the index.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield remained near 6.9%, stabilizing after recent declines as investors closely tracked movements in crude oil prices. Although geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continued to create uncertainty, a pullback in oil prices helped ease some concerns about the potential impact on India’s economy. Brent crude had earlier climbed to around $95.50 per barrel following fresh US strikes on Iranian targets, sparking fears of disruptions to global energy supplies, but later retreated from those highs, providing support to bond markets..

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, ICICI Bank Limited (NSE: ICICIBANK) led the gainers with a 1.83% increase, closing at INR 1,317.00 followed by Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE: M&M) up 1.64% at INR 3,000.90 and Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited (NSE: KOTAKBANK) which rose 1.35% to INR 393.35. On the downside, Infosys Limited (NSE: INFY) saw the largest drop, falling 2.68% to INR 1,114.60 followed by HCL Technologies Limited (NSE: HCLTECH) down 1.93% to INR 1,110.20 and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE: ADANIPORTS) which dropped 1.87% to INR 1,787.10.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar traded cautiously as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment, while a sharp rise in U.S. consumer inflation added uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Commodity markets came under pressure, with gold declining 0.91% to USD 4,096.00 per ounce, silver falling 2.02% to USD 63.44 per ounce, and copper easing 0.88% to USD 13,405.90 per tonne. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil advanced 2.10% to USD 95.02 per barrel after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran and reports that Tehran suspended vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormu.

Our Stance: The Indian rupee slipped to around 95.6 against the US dollar, surrendering part of its recent gains as escalating tensions between Iran and the United States drove a sharp increase in global oil prices. Earlier in the week, the currency had received support from dollar sales by state-owned banks, which market participants believe were conducted on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, traders noted that the rupee’s longer-term stability remains closely linked to developments in the energy market.

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