Index Update: In its latest session, the Nifty 50 Index advanced 82.05 points to close at 25,574.35, as renewed buying interest lifted sentiment and reinforced short-term bullish momentum. From a technical standpoint, the broader outlook remains cautiously positive, with the index still encountering selling pressure near key resistance levels. On the daily chart, Nifty continues to trade above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) a widely observed trend indicator that now serves as dynamic support. This reinforces the prevailing bullish bias, suggesting that any pullbacks may be limited on the downside. A sustained move above the 50-SMA would further strengthen the case for a recovery and open the path for continued upside within the broader trend structure. On the downside, immediate support is seen near 25,220, which coincides with the 50-SMA support zone. Holding above this level will be crucial to maintaining upward momentum and preventing further downside pressure.

Macro Update:  The upward momentum mirrored gains in major Asian markets after Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. Broader indices also reflected this recovery, as the Nifty 50 and mid-cap stocks each rose 0.3%, though small-cap shares lagged slightly with a 0.2% decline.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Infosys (NSE: INFY) led the gainers with a 2.59% increase, closing at INR 1,515.00 followed by Bajaj Finance Ltd (NSE: BAJFINANCE) up 1.88% at INR 1,086.60 and HCL Technology (NSE: HCLTECH) which rose 1.82% to INR 1,540.00. On the downside Trent Ltd (NSE: TRENT) saw the largest drop, falling 7.42% to INR 4,284.00 followed by Max HealthCare Institute Ltd (NSE: MAXHEALTH) down 3.13% to INR 1,099.80 and TATA Consumer Products Ltd (NSE: TATACONSUM), which dropped 2.10% to INR 1,141.20.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady in early Asian trade as weak economic data fueled global growth concerns, though hopes of a possible U.S. government deal limited safe-haven demand. Precious metals strengthened, with gold up 1.17% to USD 4,057.00, silver rising 1.99% to USD 49.07, and copper gaining 0.87% to USD 10,789.00. Brent crude increased 0.74% to USD 64.10 on expectations that a resolution to the U.S. shutdown could boost demand.

Our Stance: Investor confidence was further supported by expectations of strong corporate earnings and encouraging signals from India–U.S. trade discussions. A Reuters poll indicating that India’s inflation rate may ease to 0.48%—its lowest level since at least 2012—added to the upbeat mood, fueling hopes of additional rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India in the near term. Most sectors traded positively, led by technology and banking stocks, as easing inflation and global optimism helped underpin market sentiment at the start of the week.

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