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Indian Markets Face Bearish Pressure; RBI Cuts Rates, Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Commodities

Indian Markets Face Bearish Pressure; RBI Cuts Rates, Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Commodities

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The Nifty 50 dropped 0.61% to 22,399.15 on Wednesday, staying below a descending trendline and key moving averages, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Following forming bearish candlestick patterns, the index shows limited strength. The RSI at 40.07 suggests mild bearish pressure without oversold signals. Traders should closely watch key support levels, as upcoming sessions will be crucial in determining if a short-term recovery is possible or if further downside lies ahead.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee weakened, dropping below 86.5 per USD, pressured by global trade concerns and foreign fund outflows. Meanwhile, the RBI lowered the repo rate to 6%, marking consecutive cuts to support growth amid low inflation. The central bank also revised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY2025/26, adjusting inflation estimates to 4%.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Nestle India Ltd (NSE: NESTLEIND) led the gainers with a 3.05% increase, closing at INR 2,344.85 followed by Eternal Ltd (NSE: ZOMATO) up 2.65% at INR 215.19, and Hindustan Unilever Ltd (NSE: HINDUNILVR), which rose 2.65% to INR 2,350.00. On the downside, Wipro Ltd (NSE:  WIPRO) saw the largest drop, falling 4.29% to INR 236.65, followed by State Bank of India (NSE: SBIN) down 3.43% to INR 742.20, and Larsen and Toubro Ltd (NSE: LT), which dropped 3.38% to INR 106.95.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen and Swiss franc on Wednesday as looming 104% tariffs on China rattled global markets. President Trump, standing firm on the increase, accused Beijing of yuan manipulation. The Chinese currency hit record lows. Gold rose 0.88% to $3,016.60, silver gained 0.42%, while copper slipped 0.54%. Brent crude dropped 3.39% to $60.69 amid demand fears from the escalating U.S.-China trade war and expectations of rising global oil supply.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 remains under bearish pressure, showing limited strength despite minor support levels. The Indian rupee's decline reflects global trade concerns and foreign fund outflows, while the RBI's rate cut, and GDP revisions aim to support growth. Commodity markets face volatility, with gold gaining amid trade tensions, while crude oil and copper struggle due to demand fears. Investors should stay cautious amid global uncertainties.

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