Indian Markets Navigate Inflation and Global Commodity Pressures

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,435.95, staying above its 50-day SMA of 24,045.31 and retaining a supportive medium-term technical setup. The session saw a modest decline as the index eased from recent highs, although price remained above the moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 54.81, pointing to balanced momentum with a slight positive bias. Immediate support is placed near 24,315.00 and 24,195.00, while resistance is seen around 24,555.00 and 24,675.00. A decisive move beyond these levels could set the tone for the next directional move.

Macro Update: India’s retail inflation increased to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June, driven by higher food and transportation costs. While inflation remained within the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band, elevated food prices and energy-related pressures may influence market sentiment and monetary policy expectations.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) led the gainers with a 2.80% increase, closing at INR 1,078.50 followed by Bharti Airtel Limited (NSE:BHARTIARTL) up 1.56% at INR 1,945.00 and State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) which rose 1.50% to INR 1,082.00. On the downside followed Tata Consultancy Services Limited  (NSE:TCS) saw the largest drop, falling 3.93% to INR 2,349.70 followed Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (NSE:MAXHEALTH) down 3.13% to INR 1,007.50 and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited (NSE:APOLLOHOSP) which dropped 1.75% to INR 8,597.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar traded sideways in early Asian dealings as markets awaited fresh inflation data. Gold rose 0.39% to USD 4,460.40, while silver gained 0.95% to USD 65.55 and copper edged 0.09% higher to USD 14,168.50. Brent crude oil advanced 0.70% to USD 89.55, extending recent gains as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz persisted. Renewed Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea further increased concerns over prolonged oil supply disruptions across West Asia.

Our Stance: Indian equities may witness near-term volatility as the Nifty 50 remains above key technical support levels, while inflationary pressures and elevated commodity prices could influence sentiment. Sector-specific movements, global cues, and crude oil trends remain key factors for the next directional move.

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