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Indian Markets & Rupee Surge: Crude Slide and Diplomatic Hopes Fuel Massive Rebound

Indian Markets & Rupee Surge: Crude Slide and Diplomatic Hopes Fuel Massive Rebound

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

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Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed at 23,622.90, gaining 1.99% in the session. Despite the rebound, the index remains slightly below its 50-day SMA of 23,719.30, indicating that the broader near-term trend is still mixed. The 14-day RSI improved to 51.25, reflecting neutral momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed near 23,386.67, with the next support level at 23,150.44. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 23,859.13, while the next resistance level is located near 24,095.36. The overall outlook has improved following the latest recovery.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee strengthened to 95.2 per dollar as lower crude oil prices improved sentiment. Brent crude fell to $88.80 per barrel amid optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough. The RBI's measures to attract dollar inflows have supported the currency. However, analysts caution that lasting rupee stability requires sustained oil price declines, as previous talks have failed to produce final deals. The 10-year G-Sec yield held near 6.9%.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Shriram Finance Limited (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN) led the gainers with a 7.75% increase, followed by Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE: BAJFINANCE) up 5.49% and Larsen & Toubro Limited (NSE: LT) which rose 4.85%. On the downside, Nestlé India Limited (NSE: NESTLEIND) saw the largest drop, falling 3.29%, followed by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE: ONGC) down 2.53% and Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE: TECHM) which declined 2.45%.

Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex advanced 2.30% or 1,695.40 points to close at 75,527.95, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 1.99% or 461.30 points to settle at 23,622.90.

 

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday after President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Iran was nearing completion and could be signed soon. Trump also confirmed that planned military strikes against Iran had been cancelled, improving risk sentiment and reducing safe-haven demand. In commodities, gold climbed 2.42% to USD 4,213.65 per ounce, silver surged 5.05% to USD 67.24 per ounce, and copper advanced 1.59% to USD 13,704.00 per tonne. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell 1.50% to USD 89.05 per barrel amid easing geopolitical concerns.

Our Stance: The Indian rupee strengthened to around 95.2 against the US dollar, supported by a sharp decline in crude oil prices and renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough. However, investors remain cautious, as previous talks failed to yield a final deal. The rupee’s near-term stability still hinges on sustained oil price moderation and effective RBI intervention measures.

 

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