Nifty 50 Holds Range as Bond Yields Rise, Momentum Stays Subdued

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,175.65, ending slightly below its 50-day SMA of 24,208.19 as the index remained within a narrow trading range. Price action has lacked strong directional momentum in recent sessions, with the benchmark moving around the medium-term average. The 14-day RSI stood at 46.98, reflecting subdued momentum and a neutral technical setup. Key levels to monitor are 24,055.00 and 23,935.00 on the downside, while 24,295.00 and 24,415.00 remain relevant on the upside. A break beyond this range could offer clearer directional cues.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield climbed to around 6.91%, marking a more than two-month high amid heavy bond supply and renewed expectations of a possible RBI rate hike. The upcoming INR 340 billion benchmark bond sale added pressure, while softer Brent crude prices provided some relief by easing inflation concerns.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Tata Consultancy Services Limited (NSE:TCS) led the gainers with a 4.16% increase, closing at INR 2,342.00 followed by Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE:TECHM) up 3.53% at INR 1,640.90 Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY) which rose 2.99% to INR 1,144.00. On the downside followed ICICI Bank Limited (NSE:ICICIBANK) saw the largest drop, falling 1.40% to INR 1,422.80 followed Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) down 1.28% to INR 1,086.90 and ITC Limited (NSE:ITC) which dropped 1.12% to INR 266.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady near a one-week high against major currencies as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole for clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. In commodities, gold fell 0.60% to USD 4,636.25, silver declined 0.78% to USD 68.89, while copper gained 0.14% to USD 14,305.90. Brent crude slipped 0.30% to USD 89.45 amid developments surrounding Venezuela’s oil reserves and ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: The market setup remains neutral as the Nifty 50 trades close to its 50-day SMA with subdued RSI momentum. Elevated bond yields and rate-hike expectations may limit near-term upside, while softer crude prices offer some support. A decisive break above 24,295 or below 24,055 could provide clearer directional signals.

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