Index Update: The Nifty 50 dropped 0.63% to 24,680.90, slipping below its 51-day SMA of 25,050.87, signaling consolidation and weakening momentum. RSI at 36.92 reflects bearish pressure. Key support lies at 25,056.16; a break below could lead to a test of 24,400. However, a sustained move above 25,400 may trigger renewed bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the index toward the 26,000 mark.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee slid to 86.6/USD amid weak trade prospects with the U.S., tariff risks, and BRICS tensions. A record-low inflation print of 2.1% heightened expectations of further RBI rate cuts, dampening foreign inflows and export outlook. Uncertainty around U.S. trade negotiations further pressured India’s macroeconomic stability.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Shriram Finance Ltd (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN) led the gainers with a 2.86% increase, closing at INR 633.45 followed by Cipla Ltd (NSE: CIPLA) up 2.58% at INR 1,572.00, and Hero MotoCorp Ltd (NSE: HEROMOTOCO) which rose 1.43% to INR 4,291.10. On the downside, Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd (NSE: KOTAKBANK) saw the largest drop, falling 7.44% to INR 1,966.60 followed Bajaj Finance Ltd (NSE: BAJFINANCE) down 3.64% to INR 880.50 and Wipro Ltd (NSE: WIPRO), which dropped 3.53% to INR 250.05.

Commodity Update: The euro strengthened on Monday following a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, reducing tariffs to 15% from a threatened 30%. The deal, announced by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland, aims to prevent a global trade war. Gold rose 0.03% to $3,393.55, silver surged 0.20% to $38.44, copper gained 0.28% to $9,814.50, and Brent crude increased 0.32% to $68.66.

Our Stance: Cautious sentiment persists amid Nifty’s technical breakdown, a weakening rupee, and escalating trade tensions. Soft inflation may prompt further RBI easing, pressuring capital flows. Market participants may remain defensive until clarity emerges on tariffs and global risk appetite. Volatility likely to persist across equities, currency, and commodity segments near term.

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