Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,379.55, down 1.83% in the session, and remained below its 50-day SMA around 23,912.51, indicating a weak near-term structure. Price action reflects renewed selling pressure after the recent recovery attempt, with the index slipping toward lower trading levels. The 14-day RSI near 39.86 has moved further below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting weakening short-term momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed around 23,200–23,000, while resistance is seen near 23,650–23,900. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index’s next directional trend.

Macro Update: Indian markets extended losses for a fourth straight session amid rising crude oil prices and uncertainty over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. A record-low rupee and heavy FII outflows further hurt sentiment. Investors also remained cautious ahead of India’s April inflation data, expected to edge higher toward the RBI’s 4% inflation target.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (NSE:ONGC) led the gainers with a 4.80% increase, closing at INR 294.50 followed by Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) up 1.75% at INR 1,041.40 and State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) which rose 0.10% to INR 974.60. On the downside followed Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) saw the largest drop, falling 4.66% to INR 930.45 followed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE:ADANIPORTS) down 4.48% to INR 1,688.20 and Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE:TECHM), which dropped 4.43% to INR 1,392.90.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday as investors moved toward safe-haven assets after renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran. Market participants also remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could reflect the impact of elevated crude oil prices. Gold gained 0.19% to USD 4,737.70 per ounce, silver advanced 0.86% to USD 86.70, and copper rose 0.12% to USD 13,915.00. Brent crude climbed 0.30% to USD 104.52 per barrel after surging nearly 3% in the previous session.

Our Stance: Markets remain under pressure as weak technical indicators, elevated crude oil prices, rupee depreciation, and persistent FII selling continue to dampen sentiment. Nifty’s inability to reclaim key resistance levels signals cautious near-term momentum, while volatility may stay elevated ahead of inflation data and further developments surrounding the fragile US-Iran geopolitical situation.

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