Nifty Closes Lower; Oil Surge and Global Risks Pressure Market Sentiment

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,767.45, remaining slightly below its 50-day SMA of 23,850.43, indicating that the medium-term technical structure has weakened. Recent price action reflects continued profit booking, with the index slipping below its moving average after failing to sustain recent gains. The 14-day RSI stood at 42.87, suggesting weakening momentum and a shift toward a neutral-to-negative bias. Immediate support is placed near 23,650.00 and 23,530.00, while resistance is seen around 23,890.00 and 24,010.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield eased to around 6.82% ahead of the government’s INR 280 billion debt auction. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid surging Brent crude prices, higher US Treasury yields, fresh US tariffs, and softer flash PMI readings, reflecting concerns over inflation, borrowing costs, and moderating economic growth.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, HCL Technologies Limited (NSE:HCLTECH) led the gainers with a 2.11% increase, closing at INR 1,271.00 followed by Wipro Limited (NSE:WIPRO) up 1.32% at INR 177.12 and Cipla Limited (NSE:CIPLA) which rose 1.26% to INR 1,410.60. On the downside followed Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE:BAJFINANCE) saw the largest drop, falling 2.60% to INR 1,012.80 followed Eternal Limited (NSE:ETERNAL) down 2.47% to INR 280.00 and Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE:M&M) which dropped 2.11% to INR 3,161.40.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday, reaching a fresh 40-year high against the Japanese yen while advancing against the euro after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. Higher crude oil prices and renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions supported demand for the safe-haven currency. Gold declined 0.54% to USD 4,028.75, silver fell 1.07% to USD 57.39, while copper edged up 0.10% to USD 13,615.00. Brent crude traded at USD 100.09 despite easing 0.60%, remaining elevated amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 remains under pressure as it trades below its 50-day moving average, while softer momentum and cautious global sentiment continue to influence market direction. Elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields, and macroeconomic uncertainties may keep volatility elevated, with upcoming earnings and economic data likely guiding near-term trends.

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