Nifty Consolidates Above 50-Day SMA Amid Global Uncertainty and Caution

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,962.80, remaining above its 50-day SMA at 23,825.43, indicating that the medium-term technical structure continues to stay constructive despite the late-session pullback. Recent price action reflects consolidation after testing higher levels, with the index giving up part of its intraday gains while holding above its medium-term trend indicator. The 14-day RSI stood at 50.43, suggesting balanced momentum and neutral market conditions. Immediate support is placed near 23,723.00 and 23,483.00, while resistance is seen around 24,202.00 and 24,442.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could provide greater clarity on the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield declined to around 6.75% as sustained foreign inflows supported demand following the previous session’s selloff. However, gains were limited by elevated Brent crude prices, higher US Treasury yields, and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, while optimism over India’s prospective global bond index inclusion remained support.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NSE:SUNPHARMA) led the gainers with a 2.67% increase, closing at INR 1,938.70 followed by Bharti Airtel Limited (NSE:BHARTIARTL) up 2.28% at INR 1,931.10 and Bajaj Finserv Limited (NSE:BAJAJFINSV) which rose 2.16% to INR 1,895.00. On the downside followed Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited (NSE:DRREDDY) saw the largest drop, falling 5.89% to INR 1,269.50 followed Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY) down 1.73% to INR 1,050.80 and Maruti Suzuki India Limited (NSE:MARUTI) which dropped 1.60% to INR 13,728.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained firm against most major currencies on Thursday as renewed tensions in the Gulf increased safe-haven demand, while higher crude oil prices strengthened expectations that central banks could keep interest rates elevated. Gold declined 0.18% to USD 4,075.10 per ounce, silver slipped 0.47% to USD 58.21 per ounce, and copper advanced 0.28% to USD 13,251.70 per metric ton. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil rose 1.00% to USD 78.78 per barrel after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran raised concerns over disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its 50-day SMA, indicating a resilient medium-term trend despite ongoing consolidation. Persistent foreign bond inflows remain supportive, although elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical risks, and higher global yields may keep market sentiment cautious. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels for directional cues.

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