Nifty Consolidates Above Key Levels Following RBI Policy Decision

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,636.00, remaining above its 50-day SMA of 23,970.49, indicating that the medium-term technical structure continues to strengthen. Recent price action reflects consolidation after the recent rally, with the index holding comfortably above its moving average while trading near the upper end of its recent range. The 14-day RSI stood at 62.20, suggesting momentum remains positive while staying below overbought territory. Immediate support is placed near 24,510.00 and 24,390.00, while resistance is seen around 24,760.00 and 24,890.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: The Reserve Bank of India maintained the repo rate at 5.25% and retained a neutral policy stance, balancing inflation risks with growth support. The RBI raised its FY2026/27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% while lowering its inflation projection to 5.0%, reflecting confidence in domestic economic resilience despite persistent global and geopolitical uncertainties.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Reliance Industries Ltd. (NSE:RELIANCE) led the gainers with a 3.52% increase, closing at INR 1,325.00 followed by State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) up 2.84% at INR 1,085.00 and Bharat Electronics Ltd. (NSE:BEL) which rose 2.36% to INR 399.20. On the downside followed Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (NSE:POWERGRID) saw the largest drop, falling 1.66% to INR 270.75 followed Tata Steel Ltd. (NSE:TATASTEEL) down 1.91% to INR 189.30 and JSW Steel Ltd. (NSE:JSWSTEEL) which dropped 3.90% to INR 1,307.00.

Commodity Update: Currency markets traded cautiously on Thursday as the Japanese yen struggled to hold recent intervention-driven gains, while the U.S. dollar remained near a six-week low ahead of the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Investor sentiment stayed mixed amid uncertainty over a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. Gold advanced 0.75% to USD 4,337.00, silver gained 0.34% to USD 62.50, and copper rose 0.09% to USD 14,121.00. Brent crude oil declined 0.20% to USD 79.28 as easing shipping concerns in the Strait of Hormuz and higher U.S. crude inventories weighed on prices.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to display a constructive technical setup above its 50-day SMA, supported by positive momentum and stable macro conditions. Strength in heavyweight stocks and easing crude oil prices may sustain sentiment, while resistance near 24,760–24,890 remains crucial for confirming the next leg of the market's upward trend.

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