Index Update:  The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,649.95, marginally higher in the session, while remaining below its 50-day SMA near 23,768.78, reflecting a mildly weak near-term structure. Recent price action indicates consolidation following the recent recovery attempt, with the index witnessing volatility around current levels. The 14-day RSI near 45.26 remains below the neutral zone, suggesting softer momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed around 23,300–23,000, while resistance is seen near 23,850–24,100. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index’s next directional trend.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield climbed to a six-week high near 7.13%, pressured by rising global crude oil prices and surging US Treasury yields. Escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns weakened bond sentiment, while the rupee hit record lows, raising fears over India’s import bill, current account deficit, and broader macroeconomic stability.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Tech Mahindra Ltd. (NSE:TECHM) led the gainers with a 4.34% increase, closing at INR 1,430.00 followed by Infosys Ltd. (NSE:INFY) up 2.10% at INR 1,142.50 and Bharti Airtel Ltd. (NSE:BHARTIARTL) which rose 1.72% to INR 1,938.10. On the downside followed Tata Steel Ltd. (NSE:TATASTEEL) saw the largest drop, falling 3.29% to INR 209.71 followed Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (NSE:POWERGRID)down 3.04% to INR 296.55 and State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN), which dropped 2.47% to INR 939.40.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as geopolitical tensions escalated after efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran appeared to stall. Market sentiment remained cautious after reports that a nuclear power facility in the United Arab Emirates came under attack, while U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to discuss potential military options on Iran with top national security advisers. Gold declined 0.60% to USD 4,534.65 per ounce, silver fell 3.00% to USD 75.23, copper slipped 0.18% to USD 13,521.30, while Brent crude rose 2.03% to USD 111.29 per barrel.

Our Stance: Elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainties may continue to keep market sentiment volatile in the near term. The Nifty 50 remains in a consolidation phase with weak momentum indicators, while pressure on the rupee and bond markets could limit upside recovery unless global risk conditions stabilize further.

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