Index Update: The NIFTY 50 closed at 24,364.85, up around 0.05% for the session, and continued to remain above its 21-day SMA near 23,412.13, suggesting that the recent rebound remains intact. The index has recovered sharply from the recent low zone near 22,000 and is now consolidating near the upper end of the recent range. The 14-day RSI near 57.24 strengthened from lower levels and remained above its signal line, indicating that momentum continues to improve. Immediate support is seen near 24,000, followed by 23,500, while resistance is placed around 24,700 and 25,000.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield hovered near 6.9%, supported by softer crude oil prices that eased inflation and fiscal concerns. Improved sentiment from lower energy costs aided demand, though geopolitical risks and volatile oil prices capped further declines. Yields are expected to remain range-bound between 6.85%–7.00% amid policy outlook uncertainty.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Trent Limited (NSE:TRENT) led the gainers with a 3.29% increase, closing at INR 4,242.80 followed by JSW Steel Limited (NSE:JSWSTEEL) up 2.76% at INR 1,274.50 and State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) which rose 2.55% to INR 1,107.85. On the downside followed Jio Financial Services Limited (NSE:JIOFIN) saw the largest drop, falling 2.75% to INR 237.15 followed Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) down 2.29% to INR 1,015.25 and Tata Motors Passenger Vhcls Ltd (NSE:TMPV), which dropped 1.22% to INR 355.70.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar climbed to its highest level in one week against currencies on Monday as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, along with hopes of a Middle East peace deal, pushed investors toward assets. Gold declined 1.31% to USD 4,815.90, silver fell 1.91% to USD 80.27, and copper slipped 0.22% to USD 13,343.00. Brent crude surged 5.23% to USD 95.00 after Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautiously positive as the NIFTY 50 sustains above key moving averages, indicating underlying strength despite consolidation near resistance levels. Stable bond yields and easing inflation concerns support risk appetite, while geopolitical tensions and crude oil volatility may limit sharp upside, keeping markets range-bound with selective sector-driven opportunities emerging.

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