Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 32.40 points to close at 25,005.50, surpassing the 25,000 mark and boosting market sentiment. The index held above both the 21-day and 50-day SMAs, with the latter providing key support. Upside momentum is limited, and a sustained move above the 50-day SMA is needed for stronger recovery. On the downside, 24,350.70 remains a critical support level along the falling trendline to prevent further corrections.

Macro Update: Fitch upgraded India’s FY25–26 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand and robust Q1 growth. However, the US’s 50% tariff hike on certain Indian goods clouds sentiment. Meanwhile, India is considering an export relief package with subsidized loans to cushion affected exporters.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Shriram Finance Ltd (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN) led the gainers with a 2.52% increase, closing at INR 620.05 followed by Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT) up 2.50% at INR 2,398.80, and NTPC Ltd (NSE: NTPC) which rose 1.66% to INR 331.05. On the downside, Infosys Ltd (NSE: INFY) saw the largest drop, falling 1.49% to INR 1,509.70 followed Bajaj Auto Ltd (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) down 1.41% to INR 9,113.50 and Eicher Motors Ltd (NSE: EICHERMOT), which dropped 1.15% to INR 6,758.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar steadied in early Asian trade Thursday after a surprise drop in U.S. factory-gate prices strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, with focus on U.S. CPI data later. Commodities saw mixed moves: gold slipped 0.19% to $3,675.10, copper eased 0.22% to $9,989.65, while silver gained 0.40% to $41.76. Brent crude edged up 0.10% to $67.50 as oversupply and weak U.S. demand capped geopolitical risks.

Our Stance: The market’s breach of the 25,000-mark signals cautious optimism, supported by strong domestic demand and upgraded GDP forecasts. However, risks from U.S. tariffs and limited upside momentum remain. Key support levels are holding, but sustained gains depend on broader economic cues and easing trade-related uncertainties.

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