Index Update:  The Nifty 50 Index closed at 23,123.00, down 1.04%, and remained below its 50-day SMA of 23,685.49, reflecting a weak near-term technical structure. Recent price action indicates the index continues to face selling pressure and is struggling to regain upward momentum. The 14-day RSI stood at 35.77, remaining below the neutral mark and suggesting subdued momentum conditions. Immediate support is seen near 22,891.77, followed by 22,660.54, while resistance levels are placed around 23,354.23 and 23,585.46. A sustained move above resistance could improve sentiment, while a break below support may extend the current weakness.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield remained near a one-month low around 6.9%, supported by the RBI’s accommodative measures aimed at boosting foreign investment and long-term capital inflows. However, gains were capped by rising crude oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Overall, easing yields reflect improving liquidity and positive bond market sentiment.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (NSE: MAXHEALTH) led the gainers with a 3.09% increase, closing at INR 1,007.45 followed by Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (NSE: POWERGRID) up 1.63% at INR 290.30 and Tech Mahindra Ltd. (NSE: TECHM) which rose 1.34% to INR 1,503.40. On the downside followed Wipro Ltd. (NSE: WIPRO) saw the largest drop, falling 8.37% to INR 181.76 followed Jio Financial Services Ltd. (NSE: JIOFIN) down 3.39% to INR 228.86 and Eternal Ltd. (NSE: ETERNAL) which dropped 3.20% to INR 248.30.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar climbed to a near two-month high on Monday and ended the week higher, supported by resilient labor market data and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain elevated. Gold declined 0.70% to USD 4,335.40, while silver dropped 2.21% to USD 67.59. Copper gained 0.57% to USD 13,585.30. Brent crude oil surged 2.60% to USD 95.49 amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 remains under pressure after closing below its 50-day SMA, indicating a weak near-term technical setup. Momentum indicators continue to signal caution, with the RSI remaining below neutral levels. While easing bond yields and supportive RBI measures provide a positive backdrop, elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties could limit upside. A move above key resistance levels may improve sentiment, whereas a break below support could trigger further downside pressure.

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