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Nifty Edges Lower Amid Mixed Macro Signals, Rupee Pressure, and Fed Watch

Nifty Edges Lower Amid Mixed Macro Signals, Rupee Pressure, and Fed Watch

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

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Index Update: The Nifty 50 slipped 0.85% to end at 24,870.10, breaching its 50-day SMA of 25,013.00 but still holding above the crucial 24,800 level. The RSI at 50.59 signals fading momentum, edging closer to neutral territory. Key support is positioned at 24,400, and a fall below this may trigger further downside. On the upside, resistance is capped near 25,200, with a breakout potentially paving the way for a rally toward 25,400.

Macro Update: India’s exports to China rose 20% YoY to USD 5.8B from April–July FY26, led by energy, electronics, and agricultural products. The Indian rupee held near 87.26/USD, pressured by a stronger dollar ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, oil import demand, and ongoing tariff and geopolitical concerns.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd (NSE: M&M) led the gainers with a 0.82% increase, closing at INR 3,403.00 followed by Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (NSE: MARUTI) up 0.48% at INR 14,349.00, and Bharti Airtel Ltd (NSE: BHARTIARTL) which rose 0.17% to INR 1,933.30. On the downside, Asian Paints Ltd (NSE: ASIANPAINT) saw the largest drop, falling 2.42% to INR 2,504.50 followed Grasim Industries Ltd (NSE: GRASIM) down 2.34% to INR 2,813.80 and Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT), which dropped 2.20% to INR 2,324.90.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar stayed firm on Friday, on track for a strong weekly close ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that may shape rate outlook. Gold slipped 0.15% to $3,376.60, silver edged up 0.03% to $38.09, and copper eased 0.02% to $9,731.55. Brent crude fell 0.20% to $67.51 but was still set for weekly gains as stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks heightened supply concerns.

Our Stance: Indian markets remained cautious, with the Nifty 50 slipping 0.85% and approaching key support at 24,400. Strong exports to China contrasted with a weaker rupee, reflecting mixed macro conditions. Commodity and currency movements ahead of Fed commentary suggest ongoing volatility, while sectoral gains and losses point to uneven market participation.

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