Nifty Ends Higher as Easing Tensions Boost Sentiment, Crude Oil Slides

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,995.95, remaining above its 50-day SMA of 23,856.56, indicating that the medium-term technical structure continues to hold. Recent price action reflects a rebound after the previous session's decline, with the index recovering toward the upper end of its recent trading range while maintaining levels above its moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 49.55, suggesting balanced momentum with a neutral bias. Immediate support is placed near 23,880.00 and 23,760.00, while resistance is seen around 24,120.00 and 24,240.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield eased to around 6.77% as falling crude oil prices reduced inflation and fiscal concerns. Brent’s pullback below $93 per barrel supported bond demand and eased monetary tightening expectations. Lower US Treasury yields and sustained foreign inflows into government bonds further supported sentiment in the domestic debt market.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Eternal Limited (NSE: ETERNAL) led the gainers with a 5.66% increase, closing at INR 295.85 followed by InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE: INDIGO) up 4.91% at INR 4,230.00 and Infosys Limited (NSE: INFY) which rose 3.68% to INR 1,079.20. On the downside followed Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE: ONGC) saw the largest drop, falling 4.10% to INR 238.56 followed HDFC Bank Limited (NSE: HDFCBANK) down 0.44% to INR 739.55 and HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE: HDFCLIFE) which dropped 0.40% to INR 552.85.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased after the United States and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, prompting investors to unwind the risk premium that had lifted crude oil prices to multi-month highs. Market participants also remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. Gold rose 0.59% to USD 4,094.30, silver gained 1.22% to USD 59.62, and copper advanced 0.39% to USD 13,696.00, while Brent crude oil declined 5.50% to USD 91.94.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 maintains a cautiously positive outlook, supported by its position above the 50-day SMA, easing bond yields, and softer crude oil prices. Neutral RSI indicates balanced momentum, while geopolitical developments remain key. A sustained move above 24,120 could strengthen upside momentum, with 23,880 acting as immediate support.

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