Index Update: The Nifty 50 fell 66.70 points to close at 25,665.60, retreating from the day’s high and reflecting a softer near-term tone. The index ended below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,959.64, which continues to act as an immediate resistance zone. The RSI edged up to 39.26, indicating stabilisation from lower levels, though overall momentum remains subdued. On the downside, support is placed near 25,500, while resistance is seen around 26,500. A sustained move above 26,350 would be required to significantly improve near-term confidence.

Macro Update: India’s wholesale inflation rose 0.83% YoY in December 2025, the fastest in eight months, beating expectations. The uptick was driven by higher manufacturing prices, while food prices stabilised after prior declines. Fuel inflation remained negative, though overall WPI rose 0.71% MoM.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Tata Steel Ltd (NSE: TATASTEEL) led the gainers with a 3.66% increase, closing at INR 189.25 followed by NTPC Ltd (NSE: NTPC) up 3.31% at INR 349.10 and Axis Bank Ltd (NSE: AXISBANK) which rose 2.92% to INR 1,298.80. On the downside followed Asian Paints Ltd (NSE: ASIANPAINT) saw the largest drop, falling 2.51% to INR 2,813.90 followed Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (NSE: TCS) down 2.31% to INR 3,192.50 and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (NSE: MARUTI), which dropped 1.67% to INR 3,192.50.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar advanced to near a one-month high in early Asian trade after U.S. CPI data broadly met expectations, reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged this month despite political pressure. Gold climbed 0.63% to USD 4,628.20, silver jumped 3.84% to USD 89.68, and copper rose 1.56% to USD 13,388.20. Brent crude edged down 0.14% to USD 65.38, easing after four sessions of gains as Venezuela resumed exports, while concerns over potential Iranian supply disruptions amid civil unrest continued to support prices.

Our Stance: Near-term market tone remains cautious as the Nifty trades below key resistance, with muted momentum indicators. Elevated wholesale inflation driven by manufacturing prices may limit immediate upside, while stock-specific movements continue to dominate. Commodity trends and global cues suggest selective risk-taking rather than broad-based recovery.

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