Nifty Ends Lower as Financials Weigh Amid Rising Crude Oil Prices

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,570.65, holding above its 50-day SMA of 23,983.76, reflecting that the broader technical trend remains constructive. The index witnessed mild profit booking during the session but continued to trade above its key moving average, indicating that the prevailing price structure remains intact. The 14-day RSI stood at 59.89, signalling healthy momentum while remaining below overbought territory. Immediate support is placed near 24,450.00 and 24,320.00, while resistance is seen around 24,700.00 and 24,830.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could determine the index's next technical direction.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 6.78% ahead of the INR 320 billion debt auction, as higher crude oil prices reduced demand for government securities. Brent crude's sharp rebound heightened inflation and import cost concerns, while expectations of continued RBI liquidity support and easing inflation helped cushion downside risks.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Tata Consultancy Services (NSE:TCS) led the gainers with a 3.36% increase, closing at INR 2,452.70 followed by Grasim Industries (NSE:GRASIM) up 3.20% at INR 3,323.00 and Hindalco Industries (NSE:HINDALCO) which rose 3.17% to INR 1,059.60. On the downside followed Bajaj Finance (NSE:BAJFINANCE) saw the largest drop, falling 5.84% to INR 1,078.00 followed Bajaj Finserv (NSE:BAJAJFINSV) down 3.70% to INR 2,008.90 and Trent (NSE:TRENT) which dropped 3.54% to INR 2,997.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen as investors shifted toward safe-haven assets while awaiting details of a proposed agreement aimed at ending the Iran conflict and ahead of the U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls report. Gold advanced 0.23% to USD 4,307.40, silver gained 0.94% to USD 62.16, and copper climbed 0.85% to USD 14,190.00. Brent crude oil rose 1.40% to USD 83.65 after optimism over a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weakened amid reports that Iran could restrict U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels from the strategic shipping route.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its key moving average, indicating that the broader trend remains positive despite ongoing profit booking. Stable technical momentum, supportive domestic liquidity expectations, and resilient market structure suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, while elevated crude oil prices and global uncertainties warrant close monitoring in the near term.

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