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Nifty Ends Weak as Rupee Slide Weighs on Sentiment

Nifty Ends Weak as Rupee Slide Weighs on Sentiment

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

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Index Update:  The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,618.00, marginally lower in the latest session, while remaining below its 50-day SMA near 23,743.82, reflecting a mildly weak near-term structure. Recent price action indicates consolidation following the recent rebound attempt, with the index witnessing volatility around current levels amid mixed market sentiment. The 14-day RSI near 44.70 remains below the neutral zone, suggesting softer momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed around 23,300–23,000, while resistance is seen near 23,850–24,100. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index’s next directional trend, while failure to hold support zones may trigger additional short-term pressure.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee closed at a record low of 96.53 against the US dollar, extending its losing streak to eight sessions amid elevated crude oil prices and persistent global uncertainty. Rising fuel prices and sustained foreign fund outflows further pressured the currency, increasing concerns over imported inflation and making the rupee Asia’s worst-performing currency in 2026.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY) led the gainers with a 4.76% increase, closing at INR 1,196.90 followed by HCL Technologies Limited (NSE:HCLTECH) up 2.86% at INR 1,179.40 and Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE:TECHM) which rose 2.59% to INR 1,467.10. On the downside followed Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited (NSE:KOTAKBANK) saw the largest drop, falling 2.51% to INR 381.95 followed UltraTech Cement Limited (NSE:ULTRACEMCO) down 1.67% to INR 11,368.00 and Tata Consumer Products Limited (NSE:TATACONSUM), which dropped 1.63% to INR 1,210.90.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday after Donald Trump said a planned strike on Iran had been postponed as negotiations continued, easing immediate geopolitical concerns. Gold slipped 0.14% to USD 4,551.90 per ounce, silver declined 0.99% to USD 76.70, and copper fell 0.66% to USD 13,506.80. Brent crude dropped 2.30% to USD 109.55 per barrel after the U.S. extended a sanctions waiver on seaborne Russian oil exports, helping offset potential Middle East supply disruptions and reducing near-term energy market pressure.

Our Stance: Markets may remain range-bound in the near term as weak rupee trends, elevated inflation concerns, and foreign outflows continue to weigh on sentiment. However, easing crude prices and resilience in IT stocks could provide selective support. Traders may closely watch the 23,300 support zone, while sustained strength above 23,850 may improve momentum outlook.

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