Index Update: The NIFTY 50 Index is trading near 23,002.15, declining 775.65 points (-3.26%), reflecting sharp selling pressure in the recent session. The index remains well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,135.43, indicating a weak broader price structure. The recent price action shows an extended downward move after a prior consolidation phase. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the RSI near 29.74, suggesting oversold conditions. On the downside, 22,800–22,300 may act as a support zone, while 23,800–24,400 could act as a resistance band influencing the near-term direction.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee weakened to a record low near 93 per dollar, pressured by elevated crude oil prices above $110 per barrel and ongoing Middle East tensions. Higher import costs raised concerns over inflation and a widening current account deficit. Persistent FII outflows and a cautious global outlook, following the US Fed’s rate stance, further weighed on sentiment despite RBI intervention.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE:ONGC) led the gainers with a 1.55% increase, closing at INR 269.10. On the downside followed Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) saw the largest drop, falling 7.03% to INR 949.80 followed Eternal Limited (NSE:ETERNAL) down 5.69% to INR 228.74 and Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE:BAJFINANCE), which dropped 5.44% to INR 832.20.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, highlighting uncertainty from rising oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said higher energy costs will likely push inflation higher. Gold fell 0.70% to USD 4,862.50, silver dropped 1.34% to USD 76.54, and copper declined 1.12% to USD 12,275.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 4.52% to USD 112.26 after Iran struck key energy facilities following the South Pars attack, escalating Middle East tensions and supply risks.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains weak amid sharp index declines, elevated crude prices, and persistent FII outflows. Oversold technical indicators may offer short-term support; however, macro headwinds, currency weakness, and geopolitical risks are likely to keep volatility high and limit any sustained upside in the near term.

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