Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed at 23,853.90, up 0.98% for the session and moved above its 50-day SMA of 23,749.75, indicating an improvement in the near-term technical structure. Recent price action reflects a recovery from recent lows, while the 14-day RSI rose to 56.33, suggesting neutral-to-positive momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed near 23,615.36, with the next support level seen near 23,376.82. On the upside, immediate resistance is located around 24,092.44, while the next resistance level is seen near 24,330.98. A sustained move above the resistance zone could strengthen the recovery outlook, while a break below support may weaken the near-term setup.

Macro Update: India’s unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in May 2026 from 5.2% in April, exceeding market expectations and reaching a near one-year high. Higher energy prices and rupee weakness weighed on economic activity and labor demand. Rural unemployment increased to 5.1%, while urban unemployment eased to 6.4%, indicating mixed labor market conditions.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Trent Limited (NSE: TRENT) led the gainers with a 5.29% increase, closing at INR 2,901.10 followed by Shriram Finance Limited (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN) up 4.79% at INR 1,000.65 and HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE: HDFCLIFE) which rose 4.65% to INR 581.20. On the downside followed NTPC Limited (NSE: NTPC) saw the largest drop, falling 5.80% to INR 348.10 followed Bajaj Auto Limited (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) down 1.19% to INR 9,943.00 and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE: ONGC) which dropped 1.04% to INR 243.65.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened to a 10-day low against major currencies after reports that the United States and Iran agreed on a framework aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The development pressured crude oil prices, with Brent crude falling to USD 83.82 per barrel. Precious and industrial metals advanced, with gold rising 2.59% to USD 4,348.75, silver climbing 3.70% to USD 70.52, and copper gaining 1.05% to USD 13,848.10.

Our Stance: Despite a stronger technical setup in the Nifty 50 with improving momentum and a move above its 50-day SMA, rising unemployment and elevated energy-related macro risks may limit upside potential. Easing crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar could provide near-term support, though sustained gains may depend on improving domestic economic conditions.

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