Nifty Holds Above 50-Day SMA Amid Improving Momentum and Softer PMI

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,270.85 while remaining above its 50-day SMA around 23,822.79, indicating a stable medium-term technical structure. Recent price action reflects continued strength, with the index extending its recovery and holding comfortably above its medium-term moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 60.95, suggesting improving momentum while remaining below overbought territory. Immediate support is placed near 24,028.14 and 23,785.43, while resistance is seen around 24,513.56 and 24,756.27. A sustained move beyond these levels could provide greater clarity on the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India's HSBC Services PMI was revised slightly higher to 57.4 in June, while the Composite PMI was revised lower to 57.1, reflecting softer business activity. Growth in new orders, employment, and exports moderated, though easing input cost inflation reduced pricing pressures. Meanwhile, business confidence weakened, signalling a more cautious economic outlook.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, HCL Technologies Ltd. (NSE: HCLTECH) led the gainers with a 5.65% increase, closing at INR 1,139.00 followed by Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (NSE: MAXHEALTH) up 2.31% at INR 1,153.40 and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (NSE: APOLLOHOSP) which rose 2.27% to INR 8,893.50. On the downside followed Axis Bank Ltd. (NSE: AXISBANK) saw the largest drop, falling 1.50% to INR 1,342.10 followed Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (NSE: M&M) down 1.21% to INR 3,136.90 and State Bank of India (NSE: SBIN) which dropped 1.10% to INR 1,040.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained on course for its largest weekly decline in nearly three months after the June U.S. employment report came in weaker than expected, prompting markets to push back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and offering support to the Japanese yen. Gold surged 1.69% to USD 4,195.25, silver climbed 2.89% to USD 62.80, copper gained 0.79% to USD 13,423.45, while Brent crude oil rose 0.50% to USD 72.15 as easing Middle East supply concerns tempered geopolitical risks.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its 50-day SMA with improving momentum, reflecting a constructive technical setup. However, softer PMI readings and weaker business confidence warrant caution. Sustained strength above key resistance could support further upside, while failure to hold support levels may trigger short-term consolidation or profit booking.

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