Nifty Holds Above Key Support Amid Rising Oil and Bond Yield Concerns

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,238.50, remaining above its 50-day SMA of 23,829.70, indicating that the medium-term technical structure continues to hold. Recent price action reflects consolidation after the recent recovery, with the index trading in a relatively narrow range while maintaining levels above its moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 55.58, suggesting balanced momentum with a modest positive bias. Immediate support is placed near 24,120.00 and 24,000.00, while resistance is seen around 24,360.00 and 24,480.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India's 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 6.83%, nearing a four-week high as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted crude oil prices and dampened demand for sovereign debt. Higher oil prices raised inflation concerns for India, while investors also awaited Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index inclusion, which could boost foreign bond inflows.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Trent Ltd. (NSE:TRENT) led the gainers with a 2.94% increase, closing at INR 2,925.90 followed by Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. (NSE:POWERGRID) up 1.82% at INR 288.70 and Bharti Airtel Ltd. (NSE:BHARTIARTL) which rose 1.64% to INR 1,940.10. On the downside followed Axis Bank Ltd. (NSE:AXISBANK) saw the largest drop, falling 5.46% to INR 1,256.00 followed HDFC Bank Ltd. (NSE:HDFCBANK) down 5.12% to INR 777.60 and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (NSE:MARUTI) which dropped 2.09% to INR 13,514.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly against most major currencies during early Asian trading as heightened tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Investor sentiment remained cautious after last week's volatility, while rising energy prices added to market uncertainty. Gold declined 1.79% to USD 4,026.15 per ounce, silver advanced 1.97% to USD 57.45 per ounce, and copper gained 0.24% to USD 13,544.00 per metric ton. Brent crude oil surged 3.00% to USD 90.75 per barrel amid concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its 50-day SMA, indicating that the medium-term trend remains constructive despite the recent consolidation. However, elevated bond yields, firm crude oil prices, and ongoing geopolitical tensions could keep market sentiment cautious in the near term. Sustained movement above 24,360–24,480 may support further upside, while a break below 24,120 could trigger renewed selling pressure.

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