Nifty Holds Above Key Support as IT Rally Lifts Markets

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index traded near 24,175.70 while remaining above its 50-day SMA around 23,828.90, indicating a stable medium-term technical structure. Recent price action reflects continued consolidation, with the index moving within a relatively narrow range following its recovery from earlier lows. The 14-day RSI stood at 58.94, above its average of 56.58, suggesting moderately positive momentum without reaching extreme levels. Immediate support is placed near 23,933.94 and 23,692.19, while resistance is seen around 24,417.46 and 24,659.21. A sustained move beyond these levels could provide greater clarity on the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee recovered from a three-week low to trade around 94.9 per US dollar, supported by softer crude oil prices after Brent crude fell below USD 71 per barrel. While easing oil prices helped improve sentiment and reduce concerns over India's import bill, gains remained limited as higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar continued to pressure emerging market currencies.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Infosys Limited (NSE: INFY) led the gainers with a 5.64% increase, closing at INR 1,040.90 followed by Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE: TECHM) up 4.34% at INR 1,421.30 and Tata Consultancy Services Limited (NSE: TCS) which rose 4.31% to INR 2,068.10. On the downside followed Max Healthcare Institute Limited (NSE: MAXHEALTH) saw the largest drop, falling 1.10% to INR 1,127.40 followed Larsen & Toubro Limited (NSE: LT) down 0.81% to INR 4,059.40 and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (NSE: TMPV) which dropped 0.53% to INR 345.95.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained broadly steady on Thursday as investors awaited the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls report for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to trade near its weakest level against the dollar in four decades, with thin trading ahead of the U.S. holiday keeping markets alert for potential intervention. Gold declined 0.33% to USD 4,069.20, silver eased 0.02% to USD 60.53, copper fell 0.33% to USD 13,307.80, while Brent crude dropped 1.27% to USD 70.66 amid improving supply expectations despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to hold above its 50-day SMA, reflecting a stable medium-term trend despite ongoing consolidation. Moderately positive momentum, lower crude oil prices, and a recovering rupee support sentiment, while a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields may limit upside. Market direction remains dependent on a breakout beyond key resistance levels.

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