Nifty Holds Firm Above Key Support as Fed Decision Looms

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,250.20, remaining above its 50-day SMA of 23,875.40, indicating that the medium-term technical structure continues to strengthen. Recent price action reflects a rebound after recent consolidation, with the index recovering toward the upper end of its trading range while maintaining levels above its moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 56.11, suggesting improving momentum with a positive bias. Immediate support is placed near 24,130.00 and 24,010.00, while resistance is seen around 24,370.00 and 24,490.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield rose to around 6.79% as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Higher Brent crude prices and rising US Treasury yields added pressure, while expectations that the RBI will maintain the repo rate at 5.25% also influenced domestic bond sentiment.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Jio Financial Services Limited (NSE:JIOFIN) led the gainers with a 5.23% increase, closing at INR 249.48 followed by Hindustan Unilever Limited (NSE:HINDUNILVR) up 4.70% at INR 2,117.80 and Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY) which rose 4.51% to INR 1,155.60. On the downside followed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE:ADANIPORTS) saw the largest drop, falling 3.10% to INR 1,719.70 followed Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE:M&M) down 1.51% to INR 3,221.80 and Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (NSE:POWERGRID) which dropped 0.86% to INR 282.85.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher on Monday but remained within a narrow trading range as investors awaited a busy week of central bank policy decisions. Softer crude oil prices helped ease inflation concerns, limiting demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Gold declined 0.65% to USD 4,050.40, silver dropped 1.75% to USD 57.68, and copper slipped 0.51% to USD 13,683.00. Brent crude fell 0.60% to USD 87.85, extending losses as renewed optimism over possible U.S.-Iran talks reduced fears of wider supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Our Stance: The market outlook remains cautiously positive, supported by Nifty 50 holding above its 50-day SMA and improving momentum. However, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, elevated bond yields and commodity volatility remain key near-term drivers. Sustaining above 24,370 could strengthen upside momentum, while 24,130 remains an important support level.

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