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Nifty Holds Firm Amid Rupee Recovery and Oil Volatility

Nifty Holds Firm Amid Rupee Recovery and Oil Volatility

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

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Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,326.65, down 0.02% in the session, while remaining above its 50-day SMA near 24,019.85, indicating a stable near-term structure. Price action reflects consolidation after the recent recovery from lower levels. The 14-day RSI near 55.33 remains above the neutral mark, suggesting moderately positive momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed around 24,100–23,900, while resistance is seen near 24,600–24,800. A sustained breakout above the higher zone may support further upside movement.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee rebounded sharply from record lows, supported by a steep decline in crude oil prices following progress in US–Iran negotiations. Improved global risk sentiment, softer US Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar boosted Asian currencies. Lower oil prices temporarily eased concerns around India’s import bill, inflation outlook, and external balance pressures.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE:HDFCLIFE) led the gainers with a 3.14% increase, closing at INR 625.40 followed by Bajaj Auto Limited (NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO) up 2.77% at INR 10,605.00 and Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE:M&M) which rose 2.12% to INR 3,370.70. On the downside followed Hindustan Unilever Limited (NSE:HINDUNILVR) saw the largest drop, falling 1.94% to INR 2,272.20 followed Tata Consultancy Services Limited (NSE:TCS) down 1.40% to INR 2,401.40 and Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE:TECHM), which dropped 1.26% to INR 1,448.20.

Commodity Update: Gold prices moved higher in Asian trading on Thursday after gaining nearly 3% in the previous session, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing inflation concerns tied to hopes of a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Gold rose 0.41% to USD 4,714.40 per ounce, while silver advanced 1.32% to USD 78.30. Copper declined 0.43% to USD 13,356.90. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil rebounded 0.90% to USD 102.15 per barrel after the previous session’s sharp decline.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautiously positive as the Nifty 50 holds above key moving averages despite near-term consolidation. Softer crude prices, improving rupee stability, and easing global risk concerns support broader sentiment. However, resistance near 24,600–24,800 may limit immediate upside, while sustained momentum will depend on global commodity trends and institutional participation.

 

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