Nifty Holds Firm; Crude, Inflation Risks Cap Near-Term Upside

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,583.80, holding well above its 50-day SMA of 24,004.48 and keeping the medium-term technical structure on a firm footing. The index maintained its recent higher trading range despite limited movement during the session. The 14-day RSI stood at 60.21, reflecting steady momentum without reaching overbought territory. Immediate support is placed near 24,460.00 and 24,335.00, while resistance is seen around 24,710.00 and 24,835.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could determine the next technical direction.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield held near 6.76%, supported by softer US jobs data and reduced expectations of a September Fed rate hike. However, rising Brent crude prices capped gains amid inflation concerns. Markets now await India’s July CPI data, with inflation expected to rise to 4.50% from 4.38% in June.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Titan Company Limited (NSE:TITAN) led the gainers with a 3.02% increase, closing at INR 5,090.00 followed by Tata Consumer Products Limited (NSE:TATACONSUM) up 2.44% at INR 1,108.70 and Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE:BAJFINANCE) which rose 2.24% to INR 1,102.20. On the downside followed State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) saw the largest drop, falling 2.39% to INR 1,071.00 followed Eternal Limited (NSE:ETERNAL) down 1.51% to INR 310.25 and ITC Limited (NSE:ITC) which dropped 1.21% to INR 310.25.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a two-month low against major currencies as markets focused on upcoming inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. Gold declined 0.47% to USD 4,370.40, while silver edged 0.04% higher to USD 63.52 and copper gained 0.18% to USD 14,062.00. Brent crude oil advanced 1.10% to USD 84.45, supported by continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reopening and renewed geopolitical tensions following reported attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

Our Stance: Nifty’s position above the 50-day SMA and RSI near 60 indicate a constructive technical setup, though resistance around 24,710–24,835 may limit near-term upside. Rising crude prices and inflation concerns remain key risks. A sustained breakout above resistance could strengthen bullish momentum, while traders should monitor July CPI and global rate expectations closely.

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