Nifty Holds Firm Despite Rupee Weakness and Rising Crude Prices

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,072.75, remaining above its 50-day SMA of 23,831.39, indicating that the medium-term technical structure continues to hold. Recent price action reflects consolidation after recent gains, with the index continuing to trade close to its moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 52.15, suggesting balanced momentum with a neutral bias. Immediate support is placed near 23,960.00 and 23,845.00, while resistance is seen around 24,190.00 and 24,305.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee hovered near 96.2 per US dollar, remaining under pressure as rising Brent crude prices above USD 85 per barrel increased concerns over India's oil import bill. Fading support from RBI measures, overseas investment outflows, foreign portfolio selling, and higher demand for dollars continued to weigh on the currency and forex reserves.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Interglobe Aviation Ltd (NSE:INDIGO) led the gainers with a 1.83% increase, closing at INR 5,265.50 followed by Wipro Limited (NSE: WIPRO) up 1.77% at INR 177.74 and HCL Technologies Limited (NSE: HCLTECH) which rose 1.66% to INR 1,187.40. On the downside followed Eternal Limited (NSE: ETERNAL) saw the largest drop, falling 2.83% to INR 286.45 followed SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE: SBILIFE) down 2.37% to INR 1,822.10 and Bharat Electronics Limited (NSE: BEL) which dropped 0.94% to INR 407.10.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a one-month low on Thursday after softer-than-expected inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a patient approach toward interest rates. However, escalating Middle East tensions continued to raise concerns about potential inflationary pressures. Gold declined 0.50% to USD 4,031.20 per ounce, silver slipped 0.35% to USD 57.23 per ounce, while copper gained 0.21% to USD 13,581.50 per tonne. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil advanced 0.70% to USD 85.72 per barrel amid rising concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its 50-day SMA, indicating a resilient medium-term trend despite ongoing consolidation. Neutral momentum, elevated crude oil prices, and pressure on the rupee may limit near-term gains. Sustained movement above resistance could support further upside, while key support levels remain crucial for maintaining the prevailing trend.

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