Index Update: The Nifty 50 declined 0.56% to settle at 24,971.90 but remained above its 21-day EMA of 24,868.69, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The RSI at 55.07 reflects stable strength with room for further gains. Key support lies at 24,600, preserving the broader breakout trend. A breakout above the 25,200 resistances could spark a renewed upside while holding current levels maintains a constructive near-term outlook for the index.

Macro Update: India’s infrastructure output growth slowed to 0.7% in May 2025, the weakest since August 2024, amid declines in electricity and natural gas. In contrast, the Composite PMI surged to 61.0 in June, a 14-month high, driven by robust export demand and strong gains in manufacturing and services activity.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Trent Ltd (NSE: TRENT) led the gainers with a 3.77% increase, closing at INR 6,120.00 followed by Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) up 3.10% at INR 420.90, and Hindalco Industries Ltd (NSE: HINDALCO) which rose 1.89% to INR 661.40. On the downside, Infosys Ltd (NSE: INFY) saw the largest drop, falling 2.40% to INR 1,584.00 followed Larsen and Toubro Ltd (NSE: LT) down 2.14% to INR 3,583.70 and HCL Technologies Ltd (NSE: HCLTECH), which dropped 2.11% to INR 1,703.20.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar edged up on Monday as investors sought safety amid Middle East tensions and waited for Iran’s response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. Gold slipped 0.16% to $3,380.95, while silver rose 0.09% to $36.05. Copper dipped 0.21% to $9,634.40. Brent crude jumped 1.92% to $78.93, it’s highest since January, as U.S. support for Israeli attacks on Iran fueled supply concerns.

Our Stance: The Nifty's position above key averages signals ongoing bullish momentum despite a slight dip. Strong PMI data offsets weak infrastructure output, supporting economic optimism. Stock-specific action in consumer and metals remains encouraging, while IT sees pressure. Geopolitical tensions drive commodity volatility, especially crude, warranting cautious monitoring of global developments.

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