Nifty Holds Key Support as Crude Risks Cloud Market Direction

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,219.05, remaining above its 50-day SMA of 24,193.95 and keeping the medium-term setup relatively stable. Price action showed a mild decline from recent highs, with the index continuing to trade close to its moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 47.85, reflecting subdued momentum around neutral levels. Key levels to monitor are 23,008.00 and 21,797.00 on the downside, while 25,430.00 and 26,641.00 remain relevant on the upside. A move beyond these levels could provide further directional clarity.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee remained steady near 95.6 per dollar, supported by capital inflows and RBI intervention. However, elevated Brent crude prices, month-end corporate dollar demand and derivative maturities limited upside. A softer US dollar provided additional support, while markets remained cautious amid expectations of RBI action near 95.80.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, JSW Steel Limited (NSE: JSWSTEEL) led the gainers with a 2.57% increase, closing at INR 1,327.00 followed by Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE: HINDALCO) up 2.37% at INR 1,058.50 Tata Steel Limited (NSE: TATASTEEL) which rose 1.80% to INR 186.30. On the downside followed SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE: SBILIFE) saw the largest drop, falling 1.73% to INR 1,761.80 followed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE: ADANIPORTS) down 1.64% to INR 1,672.10 and Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE: BAJFINANCE) which dropped 1.64% to INR 1,077.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar hovered near multi-month lows on Monday as markets remained cautious following the U.S. Treasury’s plans to buy back longer-dated bonds. Investors also awaited details on potential Iran sanctions and key policy speeches from U.S. and Japanese officials. Gold rose 0.42% to USD 4,698, while silver declined 0.86% to USD 68.93 and copper fell 0.43% to USD 14,144.70. Brent crude slipped 1.22% to USD 93.17 amid profit-taking and supply concerns.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 remains in a cautiously neutral phase, with the index holding marginally above its 50-day SMA but momentum subdued. Rupee stability and capital inflows offer support, while elevated crude prices and external uncertainties remain key risks. A decisive breakout beyond key levels could determine the next directional move.

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