Nifty Holds Key Support as Earnings and Oil Prices Drive Market Sentiment

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,869.60, remaining slightly above its 50-day SMA of 23,843.34, indicating that the medium-term technical structure remains broadly stable despite the latest decline. Recent price action reflects mild profit booking after a short recovery, with the index continuing to trade within its recent range while holding close to its moving average. The 14-day RSI stood at 45.36, suggesting neutral-to-weaker momentum without entering oversold territory. Immediate support is placed near 23,750.00 and 23,630.00, while resistance is seen around 24,000.00 and 24,120.00. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index's next directional trend.

Macro Update: India's economy continues to show resilience, supported by improving rural demand, steady urban consumption, and healthy industrial and services activity. However, higher crude oil prices and an uneven monsoon remain key risks to growth and inflation. The RBI retained its FY27 GDP growth forecast at 6.6% and average inflation projection at 5.1%.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Bajaj Auto Limited (NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO) led the gainers with a 2.59% increase, closing at INR 11,283.50 followed by SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE:SBILIFE) up 2.59% at INR 1,853.50 and Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE:M&M) which rose 1.71% to INR 3,229.70. On the downside followed Adani Enterprises Limited (NSE:ADANIENT) saw the largest drop, falling 4.37% to INR 3,010.00 followed Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) down 3.12% to INR 1,025.80 and Nestlé India Limited (NSE:NESTLEIND) which dropped 3.06% to INR 1,447.90.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained broadly stable as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran supported demand for safe-haven assets, while the Japanese yen stayed near a 40-year low amid continued policy divergence. Gold declined 0.56% to USD 4,129.40, silver slipped 0.32% to USD 60.10, while copper gained 0.30% to USD 13,848.20. Brent crude oil climbed 1.70% to USD 95.62, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session after attacks on Saudi oil tankers heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 continues to trade near its 50-day SMA, reflecting a broadly stable medium-term trend despite recent profit booking. Market direction is likely to remain influenced by earnings, global developments, crude oil prices, and domestic macroeconomic data. Sustained movement above resistance or below support could determine the next phase of market momentum.

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