Nifty Holds Key Support as Rising Yields Cap Upside

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,231.85, remaining slightly above its 50-day SMA of 24,160.22 after recovering from lower levels earlier in the session. Recent price action shows the index settling around its medium-term average, with the latest movement reflecting limited directional conviction. The 14-day RSI stood at 48.33, indicating that momentum remains close to neutral. Key levels to monitor are 24,110.00 and 23,990.00 on the downside, while 24,355.00 and 24,475.00 remain relevant on the upside. A move beyond this range could provide further clarity on the next directional move.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield rose to around 6.85%, an eight-week high, as hawkish RBI meeting minutes raised expectations of earlier policy tightening. Persistent inflation concerns and Brent crude near USD 92 per barrel further pressured yields, while the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield climbed to 6.86%.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Eternal Limited (NSE:ETERNAL) led the gainers with a 2.48% increase, closing at INR 327.95 followed by Shriram Finance Limited (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) up 2.01% at INR 1,128.20 Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited (NSE:KOTAKBANK) which rose 1.82% to INR 397.35. On the downside followed Tata Consumer Products Limited (NSE:TATACONSUM) saw the largest drop, falling 1.10% to INR 1,056.30 followed Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) down 0.88% to INR 1,029.85 and InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO) which dropped 0.54% to INR 5,165.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Thursday, hovering near three-month lows as investors assessed U.S. Treasury measures aimed at easing bond-market stress after long-term yields reached their highest levels since 2007. Gold edged up 0.07% to USD 4,548.60, while silver climbed 2.11% to USD 67.21. Copper slipped 0.03% to USD 14,048.25. Brent crude advanced 0.30% to USD 91.87 as markets monitored the U.S.-Iran war and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: The market remains range-bound, with the Nifty 50 holding marginally above its 50-day SMA but neutral momentum indicating limited conviction. Rising bond yields, elevated crude oil prices and inflation concerns may cap upside. A decisive move above 24,355 could improve sentiment, while 24,110 remains a key support.

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