Nifty Holds Support as Weak Momentum Meets Rising Crude Risks

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,154.90, hovering just above its 50-day SMA of 24,123.16 as the recent upward move lost momentum. The index retreated from higher levels during the session and ended close to its medium-term moving average, making the current price zone technically important. The 14-day RSI stood at 44.67, reflecting a moderation in momentum and a shift toward a neutral-to-weaker range. Key levels to monitor are 24,034.00 and 23,913.00 on the downside, while 24,276.00 and 24,397.00 remain relevant on the upside. A move beyond this range could provide further directional clarity.

Macro Update: India’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in July 2026 from 5.5% in June, reaching a four-month low. Rural unemployment declined to 4.5%, offsetting a marginal rise in urban unemployment to 6.7%. The labour force participation rate increased to 55.4%, while the employment rate rose to 52.5%, signalling improved labour-market conditions.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, Axis Bank Limited (NSE: AXISBANK) led the gainers with a 1.28% increase, closing at INR 1,243.00 followed by Max Healthcare Institute Limited (NSE: MAXHEALTH) up 1.07% at INR 1,014.40 Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE: M&M) which rose 0.92% to INR 3,421.50. On the downside followed Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (NSE: TMPV) saw the largest drop, falling 2.24% to INR 322.80 followed Asian Paints Limited (NSE: ASIANPAINT) down 2.20% to INR 249.05 and Infosys Limited (NSE: INFY) which dropped 2.18% to INR 1,115.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar index lost momentum as traders scaled back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, largely overlooking weaker Japanese GDP data. Gold fell 0.39% to USD 4,456.10, silver declined 1.13% to USD 65.48, while copper slipped 0.35% to USD 14,096.10. Brent crude rose 0.30% to USD 91.09, remaining near recent peaks as U.S.-Iran tensions persisted over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump maintained Washington’s control over Hormuz amid limited progress in ongoing diplomatic discussions.

Our Stance: The market outlook remains cautious, with Nifty 50 trading near its 50-day SMA and RSI indicating subdued momentum. Improving employment data provides a supportive macro backdrop, while elevated crude prices and geopolitical tensions remain concerns. Investors may monitor the 24,034–24,397 range for directional confirmation before taking fresh positions.

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