Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 0.10% to close at 25,541.80, remaining comfortably above its 50-day EMA of 24,771.99, thereby maintaining the broader uptrend. A bearish candlestick pattern signals resistance near recent highs, while the RSI at 64.29 reflects slowing momentum with potential for further upside. Sustaining above the key 24,600 support is vital, and a breakout above the 26,000-resistance zone could pave the way for renewed bullish momentum.

Macro Update: India’s manufacturing sector hit a 14-month high in June 2025, with PMI at 58.4, driven by strong export demand and record job growth. However, industrial production slowed to 1.2% in May. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit narrowed sharply in April–May, aided by robust tax collections and disciplined spending, supporting the government’s FY26 consolidation target.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd (NSE: APOLLOHOSP) led the gainers with a 3.51% increase, closing at INR 7,496.00 followed by Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) up 2.55% at INR 432.25, and Reliance Industries Ltd (NSE: RELIANCE) which rose 1.85% to INR 1,528.40. On the downside, Nestle India Ltd (NSE: NESTLEIND) saw the largest drop, falling 2.24% to INR 2,410.10 followed Axis Bank Ltd (NSE: AXISBANK) down 2.16% to INR 1,173.30 and Shriram Finance Ltd (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN), which dropped 1.47% to INR 696.45.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar hit its weakest level against the euro since September 2021 amid rising fiscal concerns linked to President Donald Trump’s spending bill and ongoing trade uncertainty. Markets are increasingly pricing in a quicker pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead of key U.S. data, including Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Gold rose 0.67% to $3,329.70, silver dipped 0.02% to $35.84, copper edged down 0.01% to $9,873.30, and Brent crude slipped 0.24% to $66.58.

Our Stance: Nifty remains in a strong uptrend above key moving averages, though resistance near 26,000 could limit near-term gains. Manufacturing momentum and fiscal discipline support the macro-outlook, despite industrial output slowing. Market breadth stays mixed, while global cues especially Fed expectations and dollar weakness may influence sentiment and commodity movements ahead.

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