Nifty Momentum Softens as Rising Crude and Geopolitical Risks Weigh

Index Update: The Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,078.30, slipping below its 50-day SMA of 24,139.88 and indicating some weakening in the recent price structure. The index has declined from its August highs and is now trading around the moving average, while the 14-day RSI eased to 42.22, reflecting softer momentum. Key levels to monitor are 22,874.39 and 21,670.47 on the downside, while 25,282.22 and 26,486.13 remain relevant on the upside. A sustained move beyond this range could provide further clarity on the next directional move.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield eased to around 6.8%, supported by lower US Treasury yields and bargain buying, while foreign inflows into Indian bonds provided additional support. However, elevated crude prices, geopolitical risks and the RBI’s policy stance limited the decline in yields.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, HCL Technologies Ltd (NSE:HCLTECH) led the gainers with a 2.06% increase, closing at INR 1,324.80 followed by JSW Steel Ltd (NSE:JSWSTEEL) up 1.44% at INR 1,285.80 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NSE:SUNPHARMA) which rose 1.33% to INR 1,900.00. On the downside followed Max Healthcare Institute Ltd (NSE:MAXHEALTH) saw the largest drop, falling 1.72% to INR 997.00 followed Coal India Ltd (NSE:COALINDIA) down 1.70% to INR 400.00 and Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (NSE:POWERGRID) which dropped 1.68% to INR 263.50.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near multi-month lows as Treasury yields eased, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for interest-rate signals. Gold declined 0.30% to USD 4,407.80, while silver fell 1.41% to USD 63.13. Copper slipped 0.13% to USD 13,975.70. Brent crude oil advanced 0.73% to USD 91.67 as the prolonged U.S.-Iran standoff around the Strait of Hormuz continued to raise concerns over global supply conditions and tighter crude availability in the coming months.

Our Stance: Nifty technical setup remains cautious as the index trades below its 50-day SMA, with RSI indicating softer momentum. Elevated crude prices, geopolitical risks and bond-yield movements may keep volatility high. Investors may monitor key support and resistance levels, while easing yields and selective sectoral gains provide some offset.

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