Nifty Pauses After Recovery; Infrastructure Output Boosts Economic Optimism

Index Update: The Nifty 50 declined 50.80 points to close at 24,187.70, reflecting mild profit booking after its recent recovery. Despite the pullback, the index continues to trade above its 51-day EMA of 23,992.78, indicating that the medium-term technical structure remains supportive. The 14-day RSI stood at 54.05, suggesting balanced momentum while remaining above the neutral 50 level. Immediate support is placed near 24,000, followed by 23,900, whereas resistance is seen around 24,300–24,450. Holding above the 51-day EMA could support further consolidation with a positive medium-term bias.

Macro Update: India's infrastructure output grew 5.0% YoY in June 2026, accelerating from a revised 3.2% in May and marking the fastest expansion since January. Growth was supported by higher production of iron ore, cement, steel, and electricity, while refinery output remained weak due to disruptions and elevated energy costs linked to Middle East tensions.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, Shriram Finance Ltd. (NSE:SHRIRAMFIN) led the gainers with a 2.52% increase, closing at INR 1,061.50 followed by Bajaj Finserv Ltd. (NSE:BAJAJFINSV) up 2.10% at INR 1,900.60 and Eicher Motors Ltd. (NSE:EICHERMOT) which rose 1.67% to INR 7,689.50. On the downside followed HDFC Bank Ltd. (NSE:HDFCBANK) saw the largest drop, falling 2.08% to INR 761.45 followed Reliance Industries Ltd. (NSE:RELIANCE) down 1.47% to INR 1,303.70 and State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) which dropped 1.47% to INR 1,044.40.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, while cautious investor sentiment and geopolitical risks kept markets on edge. Gold rose 0.72% to USD 4,044.70 per ounce, silver gained 1.50% to USD 57.928 per ounce, and copper advanced 0.17% to USD 13,656.68 per metric ton. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil declined 0.52% to USD 88.76 per barrel as markets assessed Middle East supply risks following recent gains.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 remains above its 51-day EMA, indicating that the broader medium-term trend is constructive despite ongoing consolidation. However, persistent geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and mixed earnings could limit near-term upside. Sustaining above 24,000 remains crucial, while a move beyond 24,300–24,450 may strengthen bullish momentum.

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