Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 50.90 points to close at 25,693.70 after a gap-down opening, recovering from the day’s low to finish closer to the session high. Despite the rebound, the index remains below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,803.64, which continues to cap upside. Momentum remains muted, with the RSI at 52.72, indicating stabilisation from lower levels. Immediate support is placed near 25,000, while resistance is seen around 26,500, with a sustained move above 26,350 needed to improve near-term confidence.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year yield climbed near 6.7% despite the RBI holding rates, driven by tight liquidity, weak bank demand, and global bond pressures. Deposit shortages, regulatory constraints, and rising US yields continue to limit bond buying, keeping domestic borrowing costs elevated.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, ITC Limited (NSE: ITC) led the gainers with a 5.03% increase, closing at INR 325.80 followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited (NSE: KOTAKBANK) up 3.33% at INR 422.35 and Hindustan Unilever Limited (NSE: HINDUNILVR) which rose 2.96% to INR 2,424.20. On the downside followed HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE: HDFCLIFE) saw the largest drop, falling 2.39% to INR 703.50 followed Tata Consultancy Services Limited (NSE: TCS) down 1.67% to INR 2,941.60 and Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE: TECHM), which dropped 1.60% to INR 1,619.90.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar hovered near a two-week high on Friday, on track for its strongest weekly gain since November as equity markets retreated amid concerns over AI-related spending. The Japanese yen firmed ahead of Sunday’s national election. Commodities weakened, with gold down 1.10% to USD 4,836.20, silver sliding 6.72% to USD 71.56, and copper easing 0.79% to USD 12,830.00. Brent crude fell 0.74% to USD 67.05 as Middle East supply fears eased and attention turned to U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Oman.

Our Stance: Market conditions suggest cautious optimism, supported by selective buying and technical stabilisation. However, persistent liquidity stress, muted momentum, and external yield pressures continue to limit upside. Sustained index strength above key resistance and easing bond market constraints are essential for improving near-term investor confidence.

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