Index Update: The Nifty 50 climbed 211.65 points to settle at 25,682.75, recovering from a softer opening to finish near the session high. The index is now trading close to its 50-day SMA at 25,765.06, placing the near-term setup at an important inflection point. Momentum has moderated, with the RSI at 50.87, indicating balanced conditions. On the downside, the 25,000 level remains a key reference zone, while the 26,500 area continues to cap upside, with 26,350 viewed as a crucial threshold to strengthen the recovery structure.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield steadied near 6.68% amid concerns over record government borrowing, while RBI’s tighter rules on speculative lending offered limited relief. Wholesale inflation accelerated to a 10-month high, led by manufacturing and food prices. Meanwhile, the rupee weakened on importer hedging and equity outflows, despite RBI intervention support.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (NSE: POWERGRID) led the gainers with a 4.63% increase, closing at INR 300.50 followed by Coal India Limited (NSE: COALINDIA) up 3.31% at INR 422.50 and HDFC Bank Limited (NSE: HDFCBANK) which rose 2.42% to INR 925.80. On the downside followed Tech Mahindra Limited (NSE: TECHM) saw the largest drop, falling 1.41% to INR 1,512.70 followed Maruti Suzuki India Limited (NSE: MARUTI) down 1.22% to INR 15,051.00 and Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE: BAJFINANCE), which dropped 1.17% to INR 1,012.75.

Commodity Team: The Japanese yen eased after last week’s rally, while the U.S. dollar held firm as softer inflation data strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Thin liquidity prevailed with U.S., China, Taiwan and South Korea markets shut for holidays. Gold fell 0.57% to USD 5,017.60, silver slipped 2.90%, and copper declined 0.54%, while Brent crude edged up 0.20% amid U.S.–Iran supply concerns and weak Japan growth data.

Our Stance: Market conditions reflect a cautiously constructive stance, supported by index recovery and selective sector strength. However, elevated bond yields, rising inflation, and persistent currency pressure warrant prudence. With key resistance levels intact and global cues mixed, near-term momentum may remain range-bound, favoring stock-specific opportunities over broad-based positioning.

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