Index Update: The NIFTY 50 Index is currently trading near 22,679.40, rising around 1.56%, but it remains well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average near 24,717.29, keeping the broader structure weak. Recent price action reflects a steep decline followed by a modest rebound from the 22,300–22,400 zone, suggesting the index is attempting to stabilise after the recent sell-off. Momentum remains subdued, with the RSI near 37.08, showing improvement from deeply oversold levels but still below the neutral 50 mark. On the downside, 22,400–22,200 may continue to act as an important support zone, while 23,200–23,800 is likely to remain the immediate resistance band, with the 50-day SMA near 24,700 continuing to cap the broader recovery.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee weakened to around 93.5 per USD amid sustained foreign portfolio outflows and elevated crude oil prices. Persistent geopolitical tensions and Brent crude strength continue to pressure the currency, while bearish market positioning suggests further downside risks, with analysts cautioning potential depreciation toward the 100 per USD level if uncertainties persist.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Trent Limited (NSE: TRENT) led the gainers with a 7.00% increase, closing at INR 3,526.50 followed by InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO)  up 6.02% at INR 4,180.80 and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE:ADANIPORTS) which rose 5.55% to INR 1,385.40. On the downside followed Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited (NSE:DRREDDY) saw the largest drop, falling 3.61% to INR 1,209.60 followed HDFC Life Insurance Company Limited (NSE:HDFCLIFE) down 2.99% to INR 572.95 and Cipla Limited (NSE:CIPLA), which dropped 2.31% to INR 1,195.90.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar declined on Wednesday as hopes grew that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran may prove shorter than initially feared. However, the dollar remained on track for its strongest quarter since the fourth quarter of 2024, supported by lingering safe-haven demand. Gold climbed 0.75% to USD 4,713.50, Brent crude rose 1.56% to USD 105.57, copper gained 0.90% to USD 12,462.90, while silver slipped 0.73% to USD 74.37 during trading.

Our Stance: The market outlook remains cautiously negative as weak technical momentum and sustained macro headwinds continue to limit upside potential. Elevated crude prices, currency pressures, and subdued investor sentiment may keep volatility high. Near-term recovery may face resistance, while sustained movement above key technical levels would be required to signal meaningful trend improvement.

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