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Nifty Recovery Continues as Global Macro Risks Linger

Nifty Recovery Continues as Global Macro Risks Linger

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

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Index Update: The NIFTY 50 is trading near 24,050.60, up 1.16% in the session, after extending its rebound from the recent lows near 22,000. However, the index remains below its 50-day Simple Moving Average near 24,500.06, indicating that the broader structure is still recovering. The 14-day RSI has improved to 54.24, reflecting firmer momentum after emerging from oversold territory. On the downside, support is placed around 23,500–23,300. On the upside, resistance is located near 24,500–24,600, which may remain an important zone for the ongoing recovery.

Macro Update: Global inflation concerns intensified as US inflation is estimated to rise to 3.3% in March 2026 due to elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. US Treasury yields remained near 4.29% ahead of diplomatic talks, while the dollar index weakened, reflecting cautious sentiment and uncertainty around oil-driven inflation pressures globally.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) led the gainers with a 4.01% increase, closing at INR 2,360.70 followed by Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) up 3.87% at INR 7,424.00 and ICICI Bank Limited (NSE:ICICIBANK) which rose 3.17% to INR 1,321.90. On the downside followed Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) saw the largest drop, falling 4.40% to INR 434.10 followed Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NSE:SUNPHARMA) down 3.62% to INR 1,654.90 and Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY), which dropped 2.94% to INR1,292.50.

Commodity Update: On Friday, the U.S. dollar was set for its biggest weekly decline since January as global currencies strengthened on hopes that the Gulf ceasefire would hold and oil shipments would resume. However, caution remained ahead of key talks scheduled this weekend. Gold declined 0.96% to USD 4,771.30 per ounce, while silver dropped 1.11% to USD 75.58. Copper edged up 0.09% to USD 12,707.00. Brent crude rose 0.87% to USD 96.75 amid continued concerns over Saudi energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz.

Our Stance: Markets showed recovery momentum with NIFTY 50 rebounding from recent lows, though resistance near 24,500 remains a key hurdle. Global inflation risks linked to energy prices and geopolitical tensions may keep volatility elevated. Investors may track resistance levels, macro developments, and commodity trends as near-term sentiment continues to evolve across global and domestic markets.

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