Index Update: The NIFTY 50 is trading near 23,775.10, down 0.93%, after rebounding sharply from recent lows around 22,000. The index remains below its 50-day Simple Moving Average near 24,522.55, indicating the broader structure is still weak despite the recovery. The 14-day RSI has improved to 51.30, showing firmer momentum after emerging from oversold conditions. The 23,300–23,500 zone may provide immediate support if the rebound fades, while the 24,500–24,600 range could remain the next hurdle.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 6.94% as rising crude oil prices near USD 97 per barrel heightened inflation concerns and borrowing cost pressures. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened to 92.6 per dollar amid Middle East tensions, with sustained oil uncertainty likely to keep currency and bond markets volatile.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) led the gainers with a 3.56% increase, closing at INR 985.65 followed by Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited (NSE:DRREDDY) up 1.72% at INR 1,211.90 and Bajaj Auto Limited (NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO) which rose 1.61% to INR 9,517.00. On the downside followed InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO) saw the largest drop, falling 3.61% to INR 4,449.10 followed Jio Financial Services Limited (NSE:JIOFIN) down 3.25% to INR 238.84 and Larsen & Toubro Limited (NSE:LT), which dropped 2.74% to INR 3,896.20.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Thursday following broad weakness, as investors closely monitored whether the fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would continue. Precious metals moved lower, with gold declining 0.79% to USD 4,740.10 and silver falling 1.98% to USD 73.91. Copper also slipped 0.47% to USD 12,634.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil climbed 2.57% to USD 97.10 amid continuing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and renewed Middle East tensions.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautious as NIFTY 50 trades below key resistance near 24,500, signaling fragile recovery momentum. Elevated crude oil prices and rupee weakness continue to pose inflation risks, while geopolitical tensions add volatility. Near-term outlook suggests range-bound movement with downside risks persisting unless macro stability and buying momentum strengthen.

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