Index Update:  The Nifty 50 Index closed at 23,366.70, down 0.21%, and remained below its 50-day SMA at 23,685.32, reflecting a weak near-term technical structure. Recent price action suggests the index is attempting to stabilize after its recent pullback, but momentum remains subdued. The 14-day RSI stood at 40.64, indicating bearish momentum while approaching oversold territory. Immediate support is seen near 23,133.03, followed by a secondary support level around 22,899.37. On the upside, resistance is located near 23,600.37, with a stronger hurdle around 23,834.03. A sustained move above resistance could improve sentiment, while a break below support may extend weakness.

Macro Update: The RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25% and retained a neutral policy stance, reflecting concerns over global uncertainties and inflation risks. The central bank revised FY27 GDP growth lower to 6.6% while raising inflation projections to 5.1%, highlighting pressure from rising commodity prices and geopolitical tensions affecting economic stability.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Adani Enterprises Limited (NSE: ADANIENT) led the gainers with a 2.54% increase, closing at INR 3,048.20 followed by Hindustan Unilever Limited (NSE: HINDUNILVR) up 2.02% at INR 2,121.50 and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE: ADANIPORTS) which rose 1.86% to INR 1,824.20. On the downside followed Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE: HINDALCO) saw the largest drop, falling 2.93% to INR 1,092.60 followed Wipro Limited (NSE: WIPRO) down 2.91% to INR 198.37 and Trent Limited (NSE: TRENT) which dropped 2.23% to INR 2,774.20.

Commodity Update: Global commodity markets traded mixed on Friday as improving risk sentiment weighed on the U.S. dollar following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, raising hopes for broader diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Gold gained 0.77% to USD 4,502.90 per ounce, while silver advanced 0.17% to USD 73.82 per ounce. Copper edged down 0.06% to USD 13,788.90 per tonne. Brent crude oil rose 0.30% to USD 95.29 per barrel after Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire, maintaining geopolitical concerns.

Our Stance: Markets remain cautiously positioned as the RBI’s steady policy stance is offset by lower growth projections and higher inflation expectations. Technical indicators suggest the Nifty 50 is still under pressure below key resistance levels. Elevated commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainties may keep volatility high, while support levels remain critical.

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