Index Update:  The Nifty 50 Index closed near 23,416.55, remaining below its 50-day SMA near 23,678.03, reflecting a cautious near-term technical structure. Recent price action indicates continued weakness following the recent recovery attempt, with the index struggling to sustain momentum above key moving averages. The 14-day RSI near 41.72 remained below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting subdued momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed near 23,182.38 and 22,948.22, while resistance levels are seen around 23,650.72 and 23,884.88. A sustained move beyond these levels could provide clearer directional cues in the sessions ahead.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield eased to around 6.9% as expectations of tax relief for foreign debt investors boosted demand for sovereign securities. Proposed removal of capital gains and withholding taxes could attract higher foreign inflows. However, caution persisted ahead of the RBI policy decision, while elevated crude oil prices continued to pose inflationary risks.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Titan Company Limited (NSE:TITAN) led the gainers with a 3.48% increase, closing at INR 4,231.00 followed by Eternal Limited (NSE:ETERNAL) up 2.98% at INR 254.35 and Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) which rose 1.98% to INR 481.65. On the downside followed Infosys Limited (NSE:INFY) saw the largest drop, falling 1.74% to INR 1,201.30 followed Bajaj Finserv Limited (NSE:BAJAJFINSV) down 1.42% to INR 1,709.80 and Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO), which dropped 1.17% to INR 1,125.60.

Commodity Update: Global commodity and currency markets remained focused on escalating Middle East tensions, supporting safe-haven demand and keeping the U.S. dollar near a two-month high. Gold advanced 0.77% to USD 4,502.90, while silver gained 0.17% to USD 73.82. Copper edged lower by 0.06% to USD 13,788.90 amid cautious sentiment. Brent crude declined 0.70% to USD 97.16, snapping a three-session rally as traders booked profits despite ongoing geopolitical risks and signs of tightening U.S. crude inventories. Risk appetite remained subdued across broader financial markets.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty 50 trades below key technical levels and momentum indicators stay subdued. While potential tax reforms could support foreign debt inflows and bond markets, uncertainty surrounding RBI policy and elevated geopolitical risks may keep volatility high. Sustained strength above resistance levels is needed to improve the near-term outlook.

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