Index Update: The Nifty 50 declined to close at 22,331.40, as renewed selling pressure reinforced short-term bearish momentum. From a technical perspective, the broader outlook remains cautiously negative, with the index continuing to face resistance at key levels. On the daily chart, the index remains below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), a widely followed trend indicator that is now acting as dynamic resistance. This setup strengthens the prevailing negative bias, suggesting that any near-term pullbacks may attract selling interest. Unless the index decisively reclaims this level, upside potential is likely to remain limited, while continued weakness may keep the market under pressure in the sessions ahead.

Macro Update: India’s fiscal deficit narrowed to INR 12.5 trillion during April–February FY26, reaching 80.4% of the annual target. Higher receipts, supported by growth in net tax revenues, aided fiscal consolidation, while expenditure rose moderately. Capital spending remained strong, reflecting continued infrastructure focus, with the government targeting a deficit of 4.4% of GDP.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO) led the gainers with a 2.05% increase, closing at INR 884.45 followed by Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) up 1.21% at INR 450.45 and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE:ONGC) which rose 0.96% to INR 284.65. On the downside followed Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE:BAJFINANCE) saw the largest drop, falling 5.01% to INR 801.55 followed State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) down 3.93% to INR 979.40 and InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE:INDIGO), which dropped 3.81% to INR 3,943.50.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained firm, heading for its strongest monthly gain since July amid escalating Middle East tensions and yen weakness beyond the 160 level. Safe-haven demand supported metals, with Gold rose 0.26% to USD 4,536.15, silver gained 0.60% to USD 70.215, and copper increased 0.57% to USD 12,209.00. Energy markets strengthened as Brent crude Up 1.95% to USD 107.37, driven by geopolitical risks and supply disruption concerns.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty 50 trades below its key moving average, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Unless the index reclaims critical resistance levels, downside risks may continue in the near term. However, stable macro fundamentals and sustained capital expenditure could provide medium-term support to overall market stability.

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