Index Update: The NIFTY 50 closed near 23,408.80, rising 257.70 points (1.11%) in the session. Despite the rebound, the index continues to trade well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average around 25,303.36, indicating that the broader technical structure on the daily chart remains weak. Momentum indicators are still subdued, with the RSI near 29.68, suggesting the market remains close to oversold territory after the recent decline. On the downside, 23,000.00–22,700.00 may act as a near-term support zone, while 23,900.00–24,300.00 could act as resistance in the short term.

Macro Update: India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 27.1 billion in February 2026, compared with USD 14.4 billion a year earlier, as imports rose sharply to USD 63.7 billion, largely driven by higher gold and silver purchases. Meanwhile, exports declined slightly to USD 36.6 billion. Elevated freight costs, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and new U.S. tariffs on Indian goods may continue to influence trade flows.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, UltraTech Cement Limited (NSE:ULTRACEMCO) led the gainers with a 4.55% increase, closing at INR 11,099.00 followed by Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE:M&M) up 3.58% at INR 3,036.10 and Grasim Industries Limited (NSE:GRASIM) which rose 3.34% to INR 2,654.40. On the downside followed Bharat Electronics Limited (NSE:BEL) saw the largest drop, falling 2.25% to INR 429.50 followed Max Healthcare Institute Limited (NSE:MAXHEALTH) down 1.96% to INR 970.60 and Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA), which dropped 1.43% to INR 460.30.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a 10-month high on Monday as global markets turned cautious ahead of several key central bank meetings this week. Policymakers from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are scheduled to decide on interest rates amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, gold fell 1.10% to USD 5,006.60, silver dropped 2.27% to USD 79.49, copper eased 0.43%, while Brent crude rose 1.24% to USD 104.42.

Our Stance: The market rebound indicates short-term buying interest, but the broader trend remains cautious as the index trades below key moving averages and macro uncertainties persist. Elevated geopolitical risks, global monetary policy decisions, and trade disruptions may keep volatility high, with investors likely focusing on support levels and sector-specific opportunities in the near term.

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