Index Update: The NIFTY 50 declined 422.40 points (1.73%) to close at 24,028.05, after opening at 23,868.05 and trading within a range of 23,697.80–24,078.15 during the session. The index remained under selling pressure through the day, reflecting continued weakness in market sentiment. It continues to trade below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,540.79, which now acts as an immediate technical hurdle for any recovery. The RSI at 28.89 indicates weak momentum and suggests the index is approaching oversold territory. On the downside, the 23,800.00–23,500.00 zone may provide near-term support, while the 24,800.00–25,540.00 range could act as a resistance band.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 6.75%, nearing a one-month high, amid a selloff driven by surging crude oil prices and a weakening rupee. Brent crude crossing $115 per barrel increased inflation concerns. Rising import costs pressured sentiment, while RBI’s planned ₹500 billion bond purchases may help stabilize yields.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Wipro Limited (NSE: WIPRO) led the gainers with a 1.71% increase, closing at INR 198.75 followed by Reliance Industries Limited (NSE: RELIANCE) up 1.37% at INR 1,924.00 and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited (NSE: APOLLOHOSP) which rose 0.71% to INR 7,779.00. On the downside followed Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (NSE: TMPV) saw the largest drop, falling 5.35% to INR 332.00 followed UltraTech Cement Limited (NSE: ULTRACEMCO) down 5.08% to INR 11,378.00 and Eicher Motors Limited (NSE: EICHERMOT), which dropped 4.65% to INR 7,266.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday, climbing to a three-month high against the euro as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude jumping 23.00% to USD 114.36 per barrel, raising concerns over global inflation and higher interest rates. Meanwhile, commodities declined, with gold falling 1.15% to USD 5,100.35, silver dropping 2.24% to USD 82.57, and copper easing 0.84% to USD 12,765.00.

Our Stance: Market sentiment may remain cautious in the near term amid elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and pressure on the rupee. Weak technical indicators and continued selling suggest limited upside momentum. Stabilizing bond yields and policy support from the Reserve Bank of India could provide some support, while volatility may persist.

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