Index Update: Nifty 50 Index closed near 24,176.15, down 0.62% in the session, while remaining above its 50-day SMA near 23,994.29, indicating a relatively stable near-term structure. Price action reflects consolidation after the recent rebound from March lows, with the index facing some volatility near current levels. The 14-day RSI near 52.40 remains slightly above the neutral zone, suggesting balanced momentum conditions. Immediate support is placed around 23,900–23,700, while resistance is seen near 24,350–24,600. A sustained move beyond these levels could influence the index’s near-term directional trend.

Macro Update: India’s macro environment remained under pressure as rising US-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, lifting inflation concerns and weakening the Indian rupee near 94.5 per dollar. Meanwhile, India’s 10-year bond yield edged higher toward 6.96% amid elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply concerns surrounding the government’s INR 34,000 crore bond auction.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Titan Company Limited (NSE:TITAN) led the gainers with a 4.68% increase, closing at INR 4,509.00 followed by Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited (NSE:APOLLOHOSP) up 3.32% at INR 8,097.00 and Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) which rose 2.74% to INR 2,599.90. On the downside followed State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN) saw the largest drop, falling 6.66% to INR 1,019.30 followed Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) down 2.20% to INR 456.40 and HDFC Bank Limited (NSE:HDFCBANK), which dropped 1.91% to INR 780.85.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar index traded higher as hopes around a U.S.-Iran ceasefire remained uncertain, while tensions continued near the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices rose 0.31% to USD 4,725.40, silver gained 0.12% to USD 80.28, while copper slipped 0.403% to USD 13,343.20. Brent crude oil surged 2.10% to USD 103.37 per barrel after reports of fresh exchanges of fire between U.S. and Iranian forces. The renewed conflict raised concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil and gas shipping route.

Our Stance: Elevated geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices may keep Indian markets volatile in the near term. Inflationary pressures, rupee weakness, and higher bond yields could weigh on sentiment, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors. However, the Nifty 50 holding above its 50-day SMA suggests underlying resilience, with investors closely monitoring global developments and commodity trends.

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