Index Update: The Nifty 50 declined 263.90 points to settle at 25,876.85, slipping below the crucial 26,000 mark and weakening near-term sentiment. The index also closed beneath its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,970.55, which now acts as an immediate resistance zone. The RSI eased to 44.11, indicating a gradual decline in momentum. On the downside, support is placed near 25,500, while resistance remains around 26,500. A sustained recovery above 26,350 would be needed to restore upside confidence.

Macro Update: India’s real GDP is projected to grow 7.4% in FY26, rebounding from 6.5% in FY25 and retaining its position as the fastest-growing G20 economy. Growth is supported by stronger government spending and investment, despite softer private consumption and a widening trade deficit due to higher imports.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Eternal Ltd. (NSE: ETERNAL) led the gainers with a 0.93% increase, closing at INR 283.55 followed by SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. (NSE: SBILIFE) up 0.58% at INR 2,082.90 and ICICI Bank Ltd. (NSE: ICICIBANK) which rose 0.51% to INR 1,435.00. On the downside followed Hindalco Industries Ltd. (NSE: HINDALCO) saw the largest drop, falling 3.68% to INR 903.95 followed Jio Financial Services Ltd. (NSE: JIOFIN) down 3.28% to INR 293.55 and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (NSE: ONGC), which dropped 3.20% to INR 231.42.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar traded steadily on Thursday as investors assessed fresh economic data pointing to a fragile U.S. growth outlook ahead of Friday’s key jobs report, while elevated geopolitical tensions capped risk appetite. In commodities, gold slipped 0.25% to USD 4,452.20, silver gained 0.22% to USD 77.77, and copper eased 0.02% to USD 12,889.00. Brent crude rose 0.60% to USD 60.34, rebounding on a larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draw and ongoing focus on Venezuela developments.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautious as Nifty trades below key technical levels, reflecting weakening momentum. Near-term direction may stay volatile amid mixed macro signals, resilient GDP outlook, and global uncertainty. Selective stock-specific opportunities persist, but sustained index recovery above resistance is required to restore broader risk appetite.

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